Is the begining of the end of Orkut in India?

Can someone explain the precipitous fall in the Alexa statistic for Orkut here? And compare that with rise in Facebook usage.Now I agree Alexa is far from perfect, but I still think it is interesting.
I think there may be a lesson here for all those sites that want to get around the cold-start or chicken-and-egg problem associated with platforms with high network effects.The graph is a worldwide usage graph but given that India has a significant (18% and second highest) share of Orkut users,this may be attributed in some ways to change in Indian users' behavior patterns as well.

A few months ago,I was reluctantly introduced to Facebook when a small but significant and growing percentage of my friends dumped Orkut for Facebook. I initially rejected the idea with a yawn - Indians are already hooked on to Orkut, Do need another social network? A lot of also-rans came and died ( yaari, WAYN, and few others which now reside in my spam mail folder) and I wondered if another 'me too' social network would ever work. I was wrong.

I increasingly find myself more on Facebook and less on Orkut and I think in a few months I may have to invoke the "forgot password" option on my Orkut account.

I think the initial reason for the migration was due to the Facebook apps.There was a lot more to do than just see photos and updates from friends,and I think its an important reason why people come back to the site. Orkut was and is a lot more static and by early 2008 Indian users of Orkut had got past the initial novelty factor and were beginning to get bored of logging in again to see the same page with just a re arranged grid of friends.Thats when I Facebook provided something that was missed - a more dynamic page with more updates from friends.Facebook apps-although many apps are not very useful - are a clever way to increase the number of friend updates and help maintain a more dynamic page.Users will login more often to see what changed. And that is again a self feeding cycle with network effects - the less often users login the less number of updates friends will see and even fewer people will login. Network effects in reverse direction!

I think the graph explains very well what happened. Facebook is gaining a foothold in India and Google better do something about maintaining Orkut's popularity in India. The OpenSocial Apps and friend updates strategy doesn't seem to have worked too well. The UI needs a big face lift and probably a better way to show updates must be worked out. Still, if things stay the way they are , I think it is beginning of the decline of Orkut in India.